Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.379991 0.435674 0.496113 0.566513 0.646188 0.733486 0.836309
2025-07-27 0.311322 0.387789 0.477258 0.589375 0.725806 0.886115 1.088429
2025-08-03 0.260129 0.349797 0.462195 0.612731 0.808286 1.052865 1.380988
2025-08-10 0.205284 0.297255 0.420438 0.596222 0.839129 1.161229 1.618641
2025-08-17 0.160132 0.249092 0.376088 0.568627 0.850714 1.245885 1.837630
2025-08-24 0.130745 0.217664 0.349434 0.560859 0.887893 1.369804 2.127325
2025-08-31 0.107274 0.190645 0.324518 0.551202 0.920261 1.490486 2.428267
2025-09-07 0.092890 0.175469 0.315356 0.564299 0.989082 1.674356 2.848450
2025-09-14 0.075685 0.152018 0.288429 0.543491 0.999372 1.766642 3.134850
2025-09-21 0.063737 0.135696 0.270952 0.535865 1.030270 1.895705 3.496938
2025-09-28 0.053565 0.120695 0.253207 0.524614 1.052558 2.011929 3.850138
2025-10-05 0.048176 0.114309 0.250780 0.541798 1.129309 2.233156 4.414936
2025-10-12 0.041551 0.104207 0.239782 0.541536 1.175087 2.407923 4.925190
2025-10-19 0.036886 0.097544 0.234852 0.553109 1.246447 2.640692 5.575242
2025-10-26 0.033040 0.091992 0.231393 0.567357 1.325614 2.898911 6.307112
2025-11-02 0.027538 0.081033 0.213566 0.546504 1.326547 2.999267 6.733944
2025-11-09 0.022523 0.070101 0.193658 0.517247 1.304232 3.048038 7.059632
2025-11-16 0.019289 0.063269 0.182594 0.507381 1.324901 3.191570 7.604687
2025-11-23 0.016518 0.057067 0.171930 0.496607 1.341706 3.328412 8.151067
2025-11-30 0.014948 0.054132 0.169536 0.507002 1.412124 3.595911 9.022828
2025-12-07 0.012571 0.047965 0.156791 0.487132 1.402719 3.675219 9.468544
2025-12-14 0.010920 0.043771 0.148938 0.479490 1.424041 3.830688 10.112105
2025-12-21 0.009426 0.039693 0.140570 0.468807 1.435471 3.962894 10.713831